Oil markets volatile as Iran–US tensions rise ahead of ceasefire deadline

White House says US Vice President JD Vance is prepared to travel again to Pakistan for fresh negotiations aimed at reaching a durable agreement to end the ongoing conflict

HONG KONG: (UrduPoint/UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News-April 21^st, 2026) Global oil markets remained highly volatile on Tuesday as uncertainty deepened over the Iran–United States ceasefire, with diplomatic efforts continuing alongside renewed geopolitical tensions that kept investors cautious.

The White House said that US Vice President JD Vance is prepared to travel again to Pakistan for fresh negotiations aimed at reaching a durable agreement to end the ongoing conflict, which has already contributed to higher crude prices and renewed inflation concerns.

However, Iran has taken a firm position, accusing Washington of breaching the fragile truce by imposing restrictions on its ports and seizing an oil tanker. Tehran said these actions have undermined trust in the ceasefire process.

Oil prices initially came under pressure after Iran indicated it would allow commercial vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that handles nearly one-fifth of global oil supply. The move briefly eased fears of disruption in energy markets.

Sentiment shifted again on Monday when reports emerged that Iran had reversed its position, citing continued restrictions and maritime seizures, leading to a rebound in crude prices.

Donald Trump accused Iran of violating ceasefire terms by targeting shipping activity in the region and warned that restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz would remain until a formal agreement is reached.

In remarks on social media, he said the blockade was placing significant financial pressure on Iran, claiming the country was losing large daily revenues due to limited oil exports. He also indicated that negotiations were expected to continue in Pakistan but warned that failure to reach a deal could lead to renewed escalation. Separately, he suggested that extending the ceasefire was unlikely.

Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rejected what he called pressure-based diplomacy, stating that negotiations under threats were unacceptable and warning that Tehran was preparing for possible developments if talks collapse.

Despite strong rhetoric from both sides, market sentiment remained cautiously optimistic that diplomatic channels could eventually lead to an agreement reopening the strategic waterway.

Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) both saw upward movement as traders reacted to hopes of potential progress in negotiations.

Equity markets across Asia traded largely in positive territory, led by gains in technology shares. Seoul posted strong gains, while Tokyo and Taipei also advanced. Hong Kong, Singapore, and Manila edged higher, although Shanghai and Sydney showed mixed performance.

The gains followed a weaker session on Wall Street, where major indices pulled back after recent record highs.

Analysts said investors were responding to shifting signals around the ceasefire timeline, with markets pricing in the possibility of progress rather than certainty.

Japanese defence-related shares gained after Tokyo announced a policy shift easing long-standing restrictions on arms exports, potentially allowing greater participation in international defence markets.

Companies including Fujitsu, NEC, Mitsubishi Electric, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries recorded gains following the announcement.

Oil benchmarks remained unsettled, reflecting ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, while currency markets showed modest fluctuations as traders assessed global risk sentiment and potential diplomatic developments.