Pakistan vulnerable to seasonal water shortages: experts

Pakistan can currently store only about 30 days of river flow, leaving the country vulnerable to seasonal water shortages and sudden disruptions, the experts warned

MULTAN, (APP - UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 6th May, 2026) Pakistan can currently store only about 30 days of river flow, leaving the country vulnerable to seasonal water shortages and sudden disruptions, the experts warned.

'Weaponisation of water' is one of the most serious breaches of a landmark agreement that had survived wars and decades of diplomatic tensions.

Professor of Water Soil Sciences at the Muhammad Nawaz Sharif Agricultural University (MNSAU) Dr Baqir Hussain said in this regard the homeland is entering a dangerous era where water scarcity and food insecurity are converging into a single crisis, placing unprecedented pressure on the Indus Waters Treaty, the 1960 agreement on water sharing between Pakistan and India mediated by the World Bank.

The water expert cautioned that the suspension of cooperation under the treaty threatens Pakistan’s agricultural backbone and the livelihoods of millions who depend on the Indus Basin irrigation system.

While speaking to APP on the emerging water crisis, he said India’s move to place the treaty in abeyance would likely worsen the energy crisis, increase irrigation and fertiliser costs, and place farmers under growing pressure.

He noted that nearly 80 to 90 percent of Pakistan’s agriculture relies on the Indus River system, making the country one of the most irrigation-dependent agricultural economies in the world. Over the decades, per-capita water availability has dropped sharply from around 5,000 cubic meters in the 1950s to below 1,000 cubic meters today, a level widely associated with water scarcity.

He said the agriculture contributes roughly one-fifth of national output and employs more than one-third of the workforce. Major crops such as wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane depend heavily on reliable irrigation. International food agencies have already warned that climate-driven water shortages could reduce crop yields across South Asia by up to 30 percent by mid-century, intensifying rural hardship and food insecurity.

Dr Hussain added that accelerated melting of Himalayan glaciers is increasing flood risks in the short term while creating long-term uncertainty in river flows. Shifting seasonal water patterns, he cautioned, could complicate water management for downstream countries like Pakistan. He stressed that Pakistan must raise global alarm and build international support to press India to reverse its unilateral decision.

Abbas Raza is a PhD scholar of Water Soil Sciences working at the Isfahan University of Technology in Iran. In a brief meeting with APP during his recent visit at MNSAU, he said India lacks the infrastructure to completely stop river flows, but even small disruptions could inflict significant damage, particularly during winter months when river levels are low and storage capacity is limited.

He further observed that the treaty now represents far more than a bilateral water arrangement. With South Asia home to nearly a quarter of the world’s population, it has become central to regional food security, energy stability and economic resilience.