PMD forecasts below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across Pakistan in coming months

Met Office predicts re-emergence of the El Niño phase in the Pacific Ocean, which is expected to persist in coming months, along with a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole, is likely to influence weather patterns and lead to uneven rainfall distribution across Pakistan

LAHORE: (UrduPoint/UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News-June 3^rd, 2026) The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most parts of the country during June and the upcoming three-month period, warning of potential heatwave conditions, water shortages and increased pressure on agriculture.

The Met Office predicted that the re-emergence of the El Niño phase in the Pacific Ocean, which is expected to persist in the coming months, along with a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole, is likely to influence weather patterns and lead to uneven rainfall distribution across Pakistan.

The officials said these climatic conditions could contribute to intensified heatwaves, reduced water availability, and challenges for the agriculture sector, particularly during the peak summer months.

Director of Meteorology Lahore Aleemul Hassan said the combined impact of rising temperatures and inconsistent rainfall could create stress on crops and increase irrigation demands.

The PMD reported that Pakistan received an average rainfall of 22.4 millimetres in May 2026, which was about 10 percent below normal levels. The national mean temperature for the month stood at 29.2°C, which was 0.8°C above the long-term average.

Region-wise data showed mixed trends, with Punjab receiving 29.7mm rainfall in May, 19 percent above normal. Sindh, however, recorded just 0.3mm rainfall, reflecting a sharp deficit of 91 percent. Balochistan also remained 71 percent below normal, while Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) recorded 33 percent above-normal precipitation.

For June 2026, the PMD expects rainfall to remain near-normal to slightly below-normal in most areas of the country. The most significant shortfalls are likely in northeastern Punjab, Kashmir, and adjoining parts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

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In contrast, GB and upper KP may receive slightly above-normal rainfall.

The department also warned that temperatures are expected to stay above normal nationwide during June, with more intense warming likely in GB, Kashmir and northern KP. Heatwave conditions are also expected to develop over southern Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan.

Seasonal data for March to May 2026 showed that Pakistan received 148mm rainfall, which was 26 percent above normal, while average temperatures remained 1°C higher than usual. During this period, Punjab recorded 31 percent above-normal rainfall and Sindh saw a significant increase of 106 percent.

Looking ahead to the June–August period, the PMD said below-normal rainfall is likely in much of Punjab, Sindh, lower KP and Balochistan. However, northern regions, including GB, upper KP and Kashmir, may receive normal to above-normal rainfall, with northeastern Punjab expected to face the largest deficit.

The Met Office warned that reduced rainfall could negatively impact Kharif crop sowing and early growth stages, increasing dependence on irrigation systems. At the same time, increased rainfall in northern areas combined with accelerated glacier melt may heighten the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), flash floods and landslides.

The outlook also highlighted secondary risks, including vector-borne diseases such as dengue due to prolonged heat and humidity, as well as dust storms, strong winds and hailstorms that could damage crops, orchards and infrastructure.

The farmers have been advised to closely follow weather advisories for irrigation and harvesting decisions, while the public has been urged to take precautions during extreme heat and avoid unnecessary travel to mountainous regions during unstable weather conditions.