Russia develops algorithm to improve spaceflight safety

MOSCOW, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News / WAM - 16th Apr, 2026) A Russian researcher has developed algorithms that can rapidly determine spacecraft manoeuvre parameters using as few as one or two measurements from Earth, potentially improving satellite tracking and reducing collision risks in orbit.

Professor Andrey Baranov of the Engineering academy at the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (RUDN) said the method enables near-instant tracking of active satellites and more accurate prediction of space debris trajectories, tv BRICS reported.

There are currently about 5,000 manoeuvring satellites in near-Earth orbit, frequently adjusting positions to avoid debris or carry out tasks. Traditional orbit calculations require extended observation periods, increasing the risk of close approaches with other objects.

Baranov said his approach allows orbit determination after a manoeuvre using just one or two brief measurements.

"Space is no longer empty – there is a veritable 'traffic jam' of satellites and debris around the Earth. The sooner we understand where an object will fly after a manoeuvre, the safer spaceflight will be. Our method allows us to do this using two angles – just as a navigator uses the stars to determine a course, only in our case it is done by mathematics," he explained.

The formula uses a series of measurements lasting a few seconds or minutes. Based on this data, the new algorithm reconstructs the full picture: where, when and with what force the engine fired, how the orbit changed and where the satellite is now heading.

It also allows for the assessment of unaccounted-for perturbations acting on passive objects: old rocket stages and debris, including thin membrane structures with a large surface area. For such objects, traditional perturbation models (solar pressure, atmospheric drag) perform poorly, and their orbits are often predicted with error. The new method allows the constant perturbing acceleration to be calculated from a single pair of measurements and then taken into account when calculating future motion.

The method has been tested on real data from geostationary satellites, with errors in determining manoeuvre parameters amounting to a fraction of a percent. The researchers said it is ready for practical use in space tracking centres.