Climate experts call 'Indus Water Treaty' vital for regional water security

Experts have warned that any violation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) could significantly heighten climate-related risks for Pakistan and India, as the agreement serves as a crucial framework for hydrological data sharing and forecasting related to floods, droughts and water security

MULTAN, (APP - UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 15th May, 2026) Experts have warned that any violation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) could significantly heighten climate-related risks for Pakistan and India, as the agreement serves as a crucial framework for hydrological data sharing and forecasting related to floods, droughts and water security.

Water specialists and academics from Bahauddin Zakariya University shared their views with the Associated Press of Pakistan amid ongoing tensions between the neighbouring countries over the treaty. They described the agreement as a key safeguard for coordinated water management in a region already facing severe climate stress.

The experts noted that the treaty does not contain an exit clause in its current form, preventing any signatory — including Pakistan, India or the World Bank — from unilaterally withdrawing from the agreement.

They emphasised that any disruption to the treaty could weaken cooperation on water data sharing, flood forecasting and technical coordination.

Dr Turab-ul-Hassan said climate change is already altering rainfall patterns and intensifying heatwaves, adversely affecting agricultural productivity and stability. He warned that any interruption in treaty commitments could lead to unpredictable water supplies, disrupt sowing cycles and reduce yields of key crops such as wheat and rice, ultimately threatening food security.

Malik Ammar Yasir Khakhi highlighted that climate variability is already affecting hydropower generation by altering the timing and volume of river flows.

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He cautioned that a breakdown in cooperation could complicate dam planning and operations, potentially increasing reliance on thermal power generation and raising greenhouse gas emissions.

He further stated that politicising the treaty could transform environmental stress into a geopolitical challenge, undermining regional stability and weakening the ability of both countries to collectively respond to climate change.

Khakhi noted that Pakistan’s agriculture heavily depends on the Indus Basin irrigation network, which irrigates most of the country’s farmland. Irregular water flows, he said, could intensify drought conditions, increase food prices and push rural communities toward poverty and displacement.

The experts also pointed to the accelerating melt of Himalayan glaciers that feed the Indus river system. While glacier melt may temporarily increase river flows, long-term glacier shrinkage is expected to reduce water availability, making cooperation and data sharing even more critical.

Dr Muhammad Aon stressed that preserving and strengthening the treaty is not only a diplomatic necessity but also an important climate adaptation strategy for the region.

He described the IWT as one of the oldest confidence-building measures between Pakistan and India and warned that any unilateral modification could weaken its effectiveness and increase the risk of resource-based conflict in South Asia.