Nuclear neighbors on edge : Expert sounds alarm over Indus Waters Treaty suspension

KARACHI, (APP - UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 29th Apr, 2026) Prominent Geopolitical Defence Analyst, Dr. Sir S. Hassan Syed stated that unilaterally suspending the Indus Waters Treaty from India's side is not a prudent course of action, as water disputes have historically heightened tensions between India and Pakistan. Consequently, weaponizing water could provoke armed conflict between two nuclear-armed powers, endangering the lives and livelihoods of millions of people.

He further remarked that violations of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India could severely impact human life in Pakistan, given that over 80% of the country's agriculture relies on irrigation from waters allocated under this treaty.

Talking to APP on Wednesday, the Geopolitical Defence Analyst emphasized that disruptions in water flow could diminish crop yields, directly threatening the livelihoods of millions of farmers and agricultural laborers nationwide.

Dr. Sir S. Hassan Syed noted that Pakistan's major urban centers—including Karachi, Lahore, and Faisalabad—heavily depend on the Indus River to meet their municipal water supply needs.

A reduction or irregularity in water flow could worsen existing water scarcity, compelling communities to rely on contaminated water sources and increasing the prevalence of waterborne diseases such as diarrhea, he said.

Dr. Sir S. Hassan Syed warned that declining water levels or altered flow patterns pose severe risks to communities engaged in Riverine fishing and aquaculture.

He added that if water flow were to cease, the consequences would be catastrophic : deteriorating water quality and quantity would also diminish aquatic biodiversity, thereby jeopardizing critical food sources for populations in coastal and riverine regions.

He highlighted that Hydropower generated from the western rivers—namely the Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus—plays a vital role in Pakistan's energy infrastructure. Any disruption to these flows could trigger prolonged power outages, adversely affecting hospitals, schools, industries, and essential public services.

Dr. Sir S. Hassan Syed underscored that disturbances in river flows threaten traditional ways of life, indigenous knowledge systems, and social cohesion within communities—particularly in riverine and agrarian societies whose cultural identity is intrinsically tied to land and water.